EV Market Close to Tipping Point
This week Volvo announced a very bold move that can have many ripple effects. From 2019 Volvo will only make electric vehicles.
This major decision is the result of an industry that is reaching a tipping point. It has been a long ride with lots of ups and downs. We summarized the timeline.
From Gentleman's Toy to Object of desire
1883 Thomas Parker launches the first production electric car in England
1890 EV become a popular mode of transportation for wealthy city people to whom the vehicle's relatively short range was less of an issue
1910 Cheaper gas and technical refinements pushes the internal combustion engines to pre-eminence.
1931 Demand for EVs dropped but production for specialty vehicles such as milk floats continued till the early eighties.
1960 The US Big Three started researching electric propulsion but they remained concept vehicles.
1985 Sir Clive Sinclair launches the Sinclair C5, a concept car which became a cult but sales never took off.
1996 General Motors launches the EV1. The car was offered through a leasing program and while it was well received by the consumers, GM decided to scrap the program and to destroy the cars with a lot of reaction from the EV enthusiasts.
2008 Tesla launches the Roadster into production with 245 miles range.
2010 GM launches the Chevy Volt, an EV with a gas engine range extender; Nissan launches the Leaf a total electric vehicle.
2015 Tesla pre-sales 500,000 units of its Tesla Model 3 with production starting in July 2017.
2016 Worldwide sales reach the 1 million mark.
14.2 Mil EV Sales Forecast by 2025
UBS forecast that the "total cost of consumer ownership can reach parity with combustion engines from 2018" with this likely to happen in Europe first but it will follow in the US close after.
This will create an inflection point for the demand and some analyst have raised their 2025 forecast of EV sales by 50% to 14.2 Mil of global sales.
Electric cars are the most disruptive car category since the Ford Model T.